Space Weather Alerts, Observations, and Forecast

Three day Solar Geophysical Forecast

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2018 Aug 14 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 14-Aug 16 2018 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 14-Aug 16 2018

            Aug 14     Aug 15     Aug 16
00-03UT        2          2          4     
03-06UT        1          2          4     
06-09UT        1          2          3     
09-12UT        1          2          3     
12-15UT        1          3          3     
15-18UT        1          3          2     
18-21UT        2          4          2     
21-00UT        2          4          3     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 14-Aug 16 2018

              Aug 14  Aug 15  Aug 16
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 14-Aug 16 2018

              Aug 14        Aug 15        Aug 16
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.

Real Time Solar Images

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. The Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) is an instrument on the SOHO spacecraft used to obtain high-resolution images of the solar corona in the ultraviolet range. The EIT instrument is sensitive to light of four different wavelengths: 17.1, 19.5, 28.4, and 30.4 nm, corresponding to light produced by highly ionized iron (XI)/(X), (XII), (XV), and helium (II), respectively. In the images taken at 30.4 nm the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 °K Kelvin. In those taken at 28.4 nm the bright material corresponds to about 2,000,000 °K.The EIT wavelengths are of great interest to solar physicists because they are emitted by the very hot solar corona but not by the relatively cooler photosphere of the Sun; this reveals structures in the corona that would otherwise be obscured by the brightness of the Sun itself. For example, the He II transition images indicate the magnetic footprints of the coronal loops and outline the bases of coronal holes where high speed solar wind streams orinignate.

Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind

Latest LASCO Solar Corona Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO).

Real-Time Solar Wind Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Solar X-ray Flux This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites.

Satellite Environment Plot The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment.

Solar Cycle

Sun Spot Number Progression This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression.

F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression This plot shows the F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression.

Ap Progression This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression.

The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES

Northern Hemi Auroral Map

Southern Hemi Auroral Map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.

VHF and HF Band Conditions

 

Credits

Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of:
NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center
Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR)
SOHO (ESA & NASA).

Space Weather links:
3-Day Forecast of Solar and Geophysical Activity
Space Weather Overview
LASCO Coronagraph
Real-Time Solar Wind
Space Weather Advisory Outlooks
Space Weather Forecast Disussions
Space Weather Alerts, Watches and Warnings
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)
The Very Latest SOHO Images

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