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FXUS66 KMTR 171755

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
955 AM PST Fri Nov 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A few residual showers will taper off and end this
morning. Dry and cooler weather is forecast for today and through
the weekend. The next system will bring renewed chances of rain
beginning late Sunday night into Monday.


.DISCUSSION...As of 7:35 AM PST Friday...KMUX radar indicates
just a few passing showers across our region. Outside of that many
spots are seeing mostly sunny conditions. Only issue is over the
North Bay where patchy fog has dropped visibility down to less
than a mile in spots.

Overall look for dry weather through the weekend along with
seasonably cool temperatures. Highs will be in the upper 50s to
the mid 60s with lows in the 30s and 40s. Some concern the North
Bay could see pockets even dropping into the 20s Sunday morning.
METAPC did indicate 29 on the previous run while the current one
shows 32. The forecast will reflect the cool temperatures due to
the time of year, clear skies, and weak offshore flow.

Guidance continues to downplay the risk of rainfall until early
Monday morning. Grids were adjusted a bit to lower the risk of
rain Sunday night especially for spots outside of the North Bay.

Rest of next week continues to be a forecasting challenge with
the operational models keeping almost all rainfall over the North
Bay while the ensemble mean shows a much broader distribution
extending into Monterey Bay.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Latest radar scans show some residual
shower activity occurring from the Monterey Bay south, all moving
to the east as the frontal system departs the district. During the
past 3 hours, anywhere from a few hundredths to nearly a half
inch fell in Santa Clara, Contra Costa, Alameda, San Mateo and
Monterey Counties. Expect this activity to wrap up shortly after
sunrise with the rest of the day being dry and cool. Highs today
are forecast to be in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Lows tonight will
be considerably cooler under clear skies, with 30s to mid 40s

Weak ridging over California will keep dry conditions across the
state for much of the weekend. Another storm system is due to
approach the area late Sunday bringing rain chances to mainly the
San Francisco Bay Area northward Sunday night into early Monday,
although rain could reach as far south as the Monterey Bay by
mid-morning Monday. Another system is then slated to arrive after
midweek. Difference in model solutions continue, so confidence
remains low concerning precip amounts or even timing and areal


.AVIATION...As of 10:00 AM PST Friday...Widespread VFR with light
winds through the TAF period in wake of storm system. 30% chance
of seeing some shallow patchy dense fog develop in the North Bay
late tonight into sunrise Saturday.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR. Winds 10kt or less.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Winds 10kt or less. A few lingering
mid to high clouds.

&& of 09:52 AM PST Friday...Generally light to locally
moderate northerly winds today, then  decreasing through the
weekend. Strongest winds today will be along the Big Sur coast.
Winds turn southerly and increase Sunday night into early Monday
ahead of a weak frontal boundary. Seas  light to moderate, easing
through the coming days.


     .Tday...SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm from 12 PM




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